South African Parties Consider Post-2024 Coalition Government – White Collar Crime, Anti-Corruption & Fraud

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC)
remains in charge of a stable government for now, but recent
electoral setbacks and corruption scandals put it in a vulnerable
position from which it may be forced to share power with the
opposition in 2024.

The main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) is plotting a
coalition with smaller parties to block an alliance between the ANC
and the “anti-imperialist” Economic Freedom Fighters
(EFF) ahead of 2024 national elections. At stake is the right to
form the next administration and set the economic agenda on totemic
issues such as black economic empowerment, employment and
expropriation.

Significance – Rainbow coalition

An alliance between the ANC and the EFF could be established if
the ruling party fails to win at least 50% of seats in the national
parliament from 2024 elections and consequently cannot form a
government outright. To block this, the DA has led initiative in
which five parties have tentatively agreed to join the DA in talks
for a rival coalition to take power.¹

Fears or hopes of ANC underperformance have not emerged from a
vacuum.

• In 2021 municipal elections, the ANC’s share of votes was
  only 46%; the first time below 50% performance in nationwide
  elections since the end of apartheid in 1994.




• The party has since lost control in key cities such as Pretoria
  and Johannesburg.




• And now, a corruption scandal involving President Cyril
  Ramaphosa, in which the ANC used its parliamentary majority to
  block an impeachment probe into the president, has further called
  into question the party’s willingness to reform itself
  following years of state capture under Jacob Zuma.

Against this backdrop, the ANC is considering a coalition
government with the radical EFF, South Africa’s third-largest
party in parliament, led by its former youth leader Julius Malema.
That alliance has been termed a ‘doomsday coalition’ by the
liberal DA, which wants to rally other liberal parties in its own
coalition, win more than 50% of seats, and form the next government
instead of the ANC/EFF.

Outlook – Talks

The DA plans to hold a convention alongside prospective allies
between June and September where they will discuss the structure
and terms of the ‘rainbow coalition’. Taken as a whole,
these five parties were able to command about one-third of the 2021
municipal election votes and must stake its chances in 2024 on
growing beyond its base of voters in South Africa’s urban areas
and among white voters.

However, a key sticking point for the talks will be suspicion
toward the DA, which has indicated it is also prepared to
separately negotiate with the ANC to get a share of power. Such an
alliance would still allow the DA to block the EFF’s radical
policy plans on issues such as employment and expropriation.

Footnote

1. The parties are Inkatha Freedom Party, Action South
Africa, National Freedom Party, Freedom Front Plus and United
Independent Movement

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